An earthquake in the global steel market: European giants move first as Beijing’s export shock looms on the eve of 2026
As global markets prepare for the close of the calendar year, a series of strategic developments has significantly altered the outlook for the steel industry in 2026. From the implementation of a new export licensing system in China to announced price increases by ArcelorMittal, all point to a structural transition underway in the industry.
1-ArcelorMittal and a new wave of price increases in Europe
ArcelorMittal, the leader of the European steel market, has in its latest move raised prices for flat steel products (hot-rolled coil – HRC) by EUR 20 per tonne for March 2026 delivery.
-Market signal: The company has set a target price of EUR 670 per tonne.
-Driver of the move: Analysts believe this increase is less a result of genuine demand growth and more aa reaction to the imminent implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and new restrictions on low-priced imports into the European Union.
2-The end of unchecked exports: Beijing’s “special licensing” system takes effect
The Chinese government has officially confirmed that, starting from 1 January 2026, more than 300 steel products will be placed under a stringent “export licensing” system.
-Immediate impact: This announcement has triggered a rush of buyers seeking to finalize contracts before year-end.
-Price situation: Iron ore on the Dalian Exchange rose 1.15 percent, reaching 786 yuan. Meanwhile, only 35% of Chinese steelmakers were profitable last month, and Beijing’s move aims to restore market balance and prevent dumping.
3-India: production growth under the shadow of uneven competition
In South Asia, giants such as Tata Steel and JSW Steel are facing a peculiar paradox.
-India’s domestic production has grown by 5% this year, but the net profits of these companies have declined by approximately 36–38% compared to last year due to the influx of low-priced foreign products and volatility in raw material costs (coking coal). Tata Steel is now focusing on developing domestic capacities to reduce dependence on the volatile European markets.
4-Recession in traditional hubs: 11% production decline in Italy
Statistical reports indicate that crude steel production in Italy fell sharply by 11.8% in November. The ongoing crisis in Germany’s automotive sector and construction projects in Southern Europe have pushed demand for long and flat products to its lowest level in the past two years.
Sources:
Fastmarkets (UK): Exclusive report on ArcelorMittal’s price increases and analysis of the European HRC index.
Mysteel Global (China): Details of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce circular regarding the list of 300 steel products subject to export licensing.
GMK Center: Analysis of steel production in Italy and the interim profit and loss report of Tata Steel.
Trading Economics: Real-time data from the commodity exchange (DCE) and fluctuations in iron ore and rebar prices.
SteelOrbis: Report on China’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) production statistics from January to November 2025.
