A transformation in the global steel power map: India’s record-breaking rise versus China’s historic retreat
Market Analysis Desk December 2025: The release of final data for the first eleven months of the current calendar year points to a historic shift among the world’s steel production hubs. While China is grappling with a domestic demand crisis, India is rapidly consolidating its position as the new driving engine of the industry.
China: lowest production level in seven years
The official report released today by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirms that the country’s steel production fell below 70 million tonnes in November. This marks the sixth consecutive month of declining output in China, bringing total production for the first eleven months of the year to 891 million tonnes. If the current trend continues, China’s annual steel production is expected to fall below one billion tonnes for the first time since 2018, a negative milestone for the world’s largest steel producer.
India: the unrivaled leader of global growth
On the opposite front, India’s steel industry is witnessing an unprecedented surge. According to data from ICRA, India’s domestic demand has recorded growth of 8–10 percent this year. The country’s steelmaking capacity has now surpassed 200 million tonnes, and with mega projects such as JSW Group’s USD 11 billion investment, India is on track to reach 300 million tonnes of production capacity by 2030. India is now the only country among the top steel producers experiencing double-digit growth.
Iran: the export paradox and an upstream sector surge
Statistics from the Iranian Steel Producers Association reveal a dual situation. Over the first eight months of the current year, Iran’s steel value chain exports surged by an impressive 27 percent, totaling over USD 5.3 billion. Notably, exports of intermediate products such as sponge iron and concentrate jumped by 40–50 percent. However, production of finished products has faced a relative decline due to a slowdown in the construction sector and energy challenges.
Europe: declining production in Germany and Italy
The European continent continues to grapple with high energy costs and industrial slowdown. Statistics show that crude steel production in Italy fell by 11.8 percent in November alone, while Germany has experienced nearly a 10 percent decline in production this year. This situation has intensified pressure on European steelmakers to accelerate the transition to “green steel” and to utilize supportive mechanisms such as carbon tariffs.
📌 Reliable statistical sources:
* World Steel Association: Global Production Performance Report (December 2025).
* National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Official statistics on China’s steel production and commodity exchange.
* ISPA (Iranian Steel Producers Association): Statistical bulletin on steel production and exports.
ICRA India: South Asia Steel Market Outlook Report.
