One of the chronic and highly influential imbalances in our country is the exchange rate, which can be considered one of the main causes of economic instability. It would not be an exaggeration to say that throughout the 45 years since the revolution, the “currency game” has been prevalent, and one of the major sources of rent-seeking in the country has been the difference in exchange rates across various markets. According to the latest decisions of the Central Bank, Starting from December 15, 2024 (24 Azar 1403), currency transactions in the NIMA system will be conducted based on agreed-upon exchange rates. It has been stated that this action is being implemented with the aim of increasing transparency and aligning the rates closer to the actual supply and demand mechanism. Is this time a serious step towards achieving a single exchange rate for the currency?
Jahandar Shokri, the CEO of Jahan Foulad Gharb, says about this:
The agreed-upon currency system existed in previous years, where anyone who was involved in exports would bring their currency into this system and sell it at an agreed rate. Exporters would offer their currency, and importers could obtain the required currency at the agreed rate. Since the beginning of 2023, this system has almost become meaningless, and the only remaining system was the NIMA system, where prices were determined by decree. For a long period, the exchange rate in this system was fixed at 40,000 tomans. This meant that exporters had to offer their currency only in that system, and the price was set by decree. On the other hand, importers would refer to the NIMA market and receive their required currency at the same decreed rate. The issue with this situation was the significant disparity between the NIMA exchange rate and the free market rate. In the NIMA market, exporters, who were mostly producers, were severely harmed, while importers could acquire goods with currency at a decreed price. It is worth noting that the price at which those goods were sold in the market was another matter.
The main blow was dealt to exporters who were primarily producers. After extensive follow-ups, it was decided to re-establish the agreed-upon currency market. This market has been operating for the past couple of weeks, and it works in the following way: Exporters offer the currency they obtain from exports in this market, and the currency is traded based on an agreement freely made between the exporter and the importer. This means there is no fixed, decreed price, and the exchange rate is determined through mutual agreement between the buyer and seller. Currently, since this initiative has only recently started, there is a significant difference between the two markets, namely the NIMA exchange rate and the free market rate, but the situation has improved compared to before. Most exporters and producers are eager to offer their currency in this market. I hope that this decision by the Central Bank will last and that the agreed-upon currency market will not be shut down again due to severe fluctuations in the currency market.
Shokri continues: “The second point I emphasize is that they should allow the agreed-upon currency market to find its true position. If this happens and the agreed-upon market establishes its place, more export currencies will be offered in this market. This process will automatically and naturally lead to the stabilization of the exchange rate, and it is highly likely that the rate will decrease. Stabilizing the currency market with this approach will cause more currency transactions to move in this direction, and most of the currency supply demands will also be fulfilled in this system. This will create a more stable exchange rate and, on the other hand, provide greater potential for achieving a single exchange rate.”
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