Global steel production fell in October 2025.
Disruptions in China and Russia’s supply create opportunities for regional exporters.
Source: World Steel Association (WSA)
Analysis and publication by Specialized Iranian Steel Media – Steel World Review
According to the latest report by the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in October 2025 fell by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching 143.3 million tons. Simultaneous declines in China and Russia have tightened supply and increased volatility in regional markets, paving the way for higher exports from producers in Asia and the Middle East.”
Declines in China and Russia: The Main Source of Market Volatility
WSA has announced that
• China’s production (as the world’s largest producer) saw a significant decline in October due to energy restrictions, lower domestic demand, and government regulatory policies.
• Russia has also faced a notable drop in production due to sanctions, restricted sales in the European market, and supply chain disruptions.
The reduced supply from these two major producers has disrupted the global market balance and led to higher regional premiums in certain consumer destinations.
Beneficiaries: Producers in Asia, Turkey, and the Middle East.
Market analysis shows that the decline in production from China and Russia has directly increased the role of alternative suppliers:
• India has continued to increase production of flat and long products, replacing China in Southeast Asian and European markets.
• Turkey, by increasing its export capacity for hot-rolled sheets and rebar, has gained a larger share in European and North African import markets.
• Middle Eastern producers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman) have strengthened their export positions by benefiting from lower shipping costs to regional markets.
These shifts are particularly evident in consumer markets in the Middle East, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region.
Implications of this Trend for Regional Exporters
With global supply declining and demand remaining relatively stable in certain regions, the market has recently entered a phase of positive volatility for non-Chinese suppliers. This situation has led to:
1. Price premiums for exported products have increased in certain markets.
2. Regional producers’ bargaining power has strengthened compared to previous periods.
3. Niche market shares go to countries with stable supply.
4. New trade routes between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe become more active.
Significance of this Trend for Iran
For Iran, the decline in production from China and Russia means:
• Increased access to regional markets,
• Opportunity to consolidate export share in long products,
• Expanded opportunities for exporting hot-rolled sheets and slabs,
• And reduced destructive price competition from China.
The global steel market is experiencing a period of supply shifts, and in such conditions, stable regional producers can capture a significant share of the changing markets.
