The global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market has experienced a stable and upward trend since early Aban, with negative dynamics observed only in China.
Since early November, the global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market has been predominantly on an upward trajectory. Prices in the European Union and the United States have increased due to more stable demand and reduced supply, while China, in contrast, remains under pressure from seasonal decline and competition in export markets
(EU)
In Europe, hot-rolled coil prices have been rising since early November. Specifically, price offers in Western Europe and Italy increased by around 1.7% between 31 October and 21 November 2025, reaching €610 per ton (Ex-works) and €605 per ton, respectively. At the same time, import offers in Southern Europe rose by 5.3%, reaching €500 per ton (CIF), the highest level since early October.
The gradual price improvement in November results from a combination of supply and demand factors. On the supply side, the main driver is the annual contract negotiations with the automotive industry, where steel producers are insisting on a minimum price increase of €60–100 compared to last year. This has created psychological pressure on the market and raised expectations for the first quarter of 2026.
HRC supply in Europe is still not facing shortages, but pressure from the cold-rolled (CRC) and hot-dip galvanized (HDG) sectors has increased. An incident at the Marcegaglia plant and a production halt at an Italian company have reduced access to cold-rolled products. Additionally, the preferential use of some coils for downstream processing is limiting domestic HRC availability. Moreover, uncertainty regarding CBAM mechanisms and future support measures has reduced import competitiveness and strengthened the position of European producers.
Overall, demand remains weak. Service centers are operating only based on current orders, and major buyers have stocked up their warehouses during the summer with Asian imports. This limits potential growth and forces some producers to offer discounts to maintain sales volumes.
Prices are expected to rise moderately by the end of the calendar year (mid-January 2026), by around €10–20 per ton, mainly due to negotiations with the automotive industry and the gradual decline in import inventories. However, without an improvement in end-user demand, the market does not anticipate significant growth in HRC prices.
(US)
In the United States, hot-rolled coil prices, after a prolonged period of stability, began a significant upward trend from early November, reaching their highest level since August 2024. Price offers between 31 October and 21 November 2025 rose by around 4.1%, reaching $970 per ton.
The main driver of this trend was a series of price increases by U.S. producers, particularly Nucor, which announced weekly upward adjustments for five consecutive weeks. This trend was further supported by actions from NLMK USA and other initiatives in the flat steel market, including price hikes for heavy-gauge sheets.
Slightly reduced product availability in the spot market due to capacity outages in the fall helped producers implement price increases. Buyers who had delayed their purchases were forced to return to the market at the new prices. Meanwhile, the contract segment remained stable, and producers, anticipating improved capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2026 (Winter 2025–2026), sought to establish higher price levels for future deliveries.
However, demand on the downstream consumer side is not showing stable growth. Service centers reduce their activity toward the end of the calendar year, anticipating seasonal sales declines and being cautious about accumulating expensive inventories. Additionally, consistently short lead times indicate that a real supply shortage has not yet materialized.
Prices are expected to fluctuate between $10 and $20 by the end of the calendar year (mid-January 2026). The trend in 2026 will depend on producers maintaining supply discipline, as the market enters a period of inventory buildup in early 2026 (January–February 2026).
(China)
In the Chinese market, hot-rolled coil prices have fallen by 3.1% since early November, reaching $470 per ton (FOB), the lowest level since early June 2024.
After a short-term increase in early November (late October 2025), driven by speculation about overcapacity control policies and rising coking coal prices, the market quickly lost momentum. Real demand declined with the approach of the winter seasonal slowdown, and HRC inventories began rising again. At the same time, flat steel production is decreasing more slowly than long products, adding further pressure on prices.
Export activity remains weak. Despite price adjustments, buyers are cautious due to market fluctuations. Competition from Japan, India, and Indonesia is limiting price growth, and deep discounts offered by some Chinese traders indicate efforts to maintain sales volumes.
The Chinese market is expected to remain under seasonal downward pressure until the end of the calendar year (mid-January 2026), with a potential further decline of $5–10. A slight recovery is only likely if there is a significant reduction in production or the introduction of new government stimulus measures.
