According to Steel World Review, in its latest outlook, the World Steel Association has abandoned its expectation of growth in global steel demand and reported that consumption will remain unchanged in 2026. Continued weakness in China’s housing market, the slow recovery of the construction sector in Europe, and disruptions caused by unrest in the Middle East are among the factors contributing to this revised forecast.
On October 12, 2026, the World Steel Association announced in its Short Range Outlook report that global steel demand would remain at 1.722 billion tonnes in 2026. In its April forecast, the association had projected demand growth of 0.3% for the current year.
At the same time, the forecast for global steel demand growth in 2027 has also been reduced from 2.2% to 1.7%. According to the new estimate, global demand will reach 1.752 billion tonnes next year.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the World Steel Association’s Economic Committee, stated that the market recovery is continuing, but at a slower and more gradual pace than previously expected. According to him, most of the forecast revisions are related to developments in China, while demand in other markets around the world continues to grow.
China; the main factor behind the revision of the global forecast
The World Steel Association expects Chinese steel demand to decline by 2% in 2026. The decline in investment in the country’s property sector has not yet slowed, contrary to previous expectations. Infrastructure investment, which was expected to support steel demand, also remains in negative territory.
In contrast, steel demand in China’s manufacturing sector has grown, supported by strong exports. However, this increase has not been sufficient to offset weakness in the property and infrastructure sectors.
For 2027, China’s steel demand decline is expected to be limited to 1%. The downward trend in the property sector is expected to slow, although it will continue. At the same time, the Chinese government remains cautious about expanding infrastructure investment, and moderate growth in the manufacturing sector will remain dependent on continued exports. Escalating trade tensions are considered one of the major risks to this outlook.
Developing markets; growth outside China
According to the World Steel Association’s report, steel demand in developing economies, excluding China, is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026 and reach 5.1% growth in 2027.
The slowdown in growth this year has been mainly influenced by developments in the Middle East, a region that had previously been one of the major centres of growth in the global steel market. In other developing economies, underlying demand trends remain positive, and Asia and an improvement in conditions in the Middle East are expected to support growth next year.
India; continued demand growth
India remains forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing major steel market in terms of demand. Estimates indicate that the country’s steel demand will increase by 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes in 2026 and rise by a further 8% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027.
Infrastructure-led construction, healthy demand in the private property sector, and manufacturing growth are the main drivers of this trend. The development of renewable energy projects and increased production capacity have also strengthened demand for electrical and mechanical machinery. Automotive production is also benefiting from domestic demand, export growth, and policy support.
The Gulf; falling demand in 2026 and expected improvement next year
The outlook for the steel market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries has changed significantly. Steel demand in the region grew by 17.7% in 2025, supported by economic diversification programmes, construction projects, and housing market activity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, the World Steel Association now forecasts that regional steel demand will decline by approximately 11% in 2026. This represents a significant change compared with the April forecast.
According to the chair of the association’s Economic Committee, what is being observed in the region is not necessarily the disappearance of demand, but rather its postponement, because as long as the security situation remains uncertain, decisions on project awards, the commencement of construction work, and financing will be delayed.
Under the new scenario, Gulf steel demand is expected to recover by 11.3% in 2027 and return to its 2025 level. This forecast depends on reduced uncertainty, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the normalisation of supply chains.
ASEAN; demand growth led by Vietnam
(Association of Southeast Asian Nation)
Steel demand across the five major ASEAN economies, comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, is forecast to grow by 5.2% in 2026. This rate is expected to decline to 3.2% in 2027.
Vietnam stands out among these markets. Production and trade data indicate that the country’s growth rate will reach double digits this year, with apparent steel consumption expected to reach approximately 30 million tonnes for the first time. Unprecedented levels of residential and commercial construction, along with an extensive public investment programme, are supporting demand.
Developed economies; gradual improvement in 2027
The World Steel Association estimates that steel demand in developed economies will grow by approximately 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. However, the market size in 2025 remained approximately 60 million tonnes, or 15%, below the levels recorded in 2017 and 2018. The projected growth across 2026 and 2027 will recover only around 10 million tonnes of this gap.
In the European Union, apparent steel consumption is expected to decline by 0.3% in 2026 before recording growth of 3.1% in 2027. The forecast for the current year has been revised down by 1.5 percentage points compared with the previous estimate.
Part of the market’s stronger performance in 2025 resulted from increased stockpiling ahead of the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. Meanwhile, the recovery in the construction sector has been slower and more uneven than expected, while the automotive industry continues to weigh on demand.
Nevertheless, an improvement in the economic environment and increased investment in infrastructure, defence, railways, and energy could support the recovery of steel-consuming sectors in 2027.
The United States; support from investment in energy infrastructure and data centres
US steel demand is forecast to grow by 2% in 2026. Investment in data centres and energy infrastructure, including power generation, renewable energy, and oil and gas, are among the main factors supporting the market. Some manufacturing sectors are also contributing to this growth.
For 2027, US apparent steel consumption is forecast to grow by approximately 1.5%. Demand growth is expected to remain concentrated mainly in non-residential construction, major infrastructure projects, energy, and certain manufacturing industries. In contrast, residential construction is expected to remain relatively weak due to high mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and elevated construction costs.
Japan and South Korea; limited recovery in demand
Japan’s steel demand is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. Construction is expected to shift from being a limiting factor to providing support, while increased corporate investment is expected to contribute to demand growth for machinery. However, the automotive industry will continue to face pressure.
In South Korea, following a sharp decline in demand in 2025, growth of 1.8% is forecast for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. The construction sector is expected to reach its low point in the second half of 2026 and recover to some extent. Automotive production and shipbuilding activity are also expected to return to modest growth.
However, the World Steel Association emphasises that the recovery in both markets will be limited, and neither country is expected to return to pre-downturn demand levels during the forecast period.
The 2027 outlook; growth outside China amid ongoing geopolitical risks
The World Steel Association stated in its report that the new forecasts were prepared using information available through early September 2026. When the April forecast was prepared, the assumption was that the conflict in the Middle East would end by June. However, the situation has continued.
According to the association’s assessment, the global economy has so far managed to absorb part of the initial shock, and energy markets have performed better than in more pessimistic scenarios. Nevertheless, continued disruptions could limit the global economy’s ability to withstand further shocks and increase the risks to the 2027 outlook.
Source: World Steel Association and Reuters
Author: Steel World Review
