As the global steel industry struggles under a surplus capacity of nearly 640 million tons and a surge of more than 100 million tons of low-priced Chinese exports, the Middle East finds itself in an unconventional and strategic position. A region that for decades was known mainly as an exporter of raw energy has now become the stage for a decisive battle to capture the markets of the new metals value chain.
Unlike traditional competitors in Asia and Europe, which produce nearly 70 percent of their steel in coal-dependent blast furnaces with an average emission of 2.2 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of steel, the beating heart of Middle Eastern production is built on the Direct Reduction Iron (DRI) process and Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF). This natural gas-based structure reduces carbon emissions to approximately 1.0 to 1.2 tons per ton of steel a structural advantage that has gained commercial value on the threshold of the full implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and climate tariffs.
However, the challenges ahead are multifaceted and unprecedented. The World Steel Association’s estimate of very weak global demand growth (about 0.3 percent in 2026, reaching 1.72 billion tons) has made price competition in basic construction sections severely erosive. Meanwhile, the region’s domestic demand driven by massive infrastructure projects in the Persian Gulf countries, which are projected to consume more than 55 to 60 million tons of steel annually has created a protective shield against the global downturn.
The equation for survival for regional producers now rests on two pillars: upgrading quality toward alloy steels and specialty sheets with high added value, and the gradual transition of gas feedstock to green hydrogen to bring carbon emissions below 0.5 tons. The Middle East has the potential to become a global hub for “low-carbon steel,” but the time window for maintaining this advantage is limited. In an economy where every ton of carbon dioxide will soon carry a penalty of tens of euros at Europe’s entry points, leading in clean technologies will be the only guarantee of continued presence in top-tier international markets.
